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Sacramento’s positive job growth is showing a downward pattern – CSER Economy Watch December 2012

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The six-county Sacramento Region experienced another decline in annual job growth in November 2012. Preliminary data show that the number of jobs on payrolls in the Region increased by 0.5 percent in the past 12 months, which equates to a gain of 4,300 jobs. This rate of growth is notably lower than what the Region posted just four months ago when annual job growth was at 2.5 percent. While this job growth dip was not unexpected according to CSER’s Sacramento Region Business Forecast, the rate of growth is slightly lower than anticipated. For the past six months, the Yuba-Sutter area has seen consistent annual job declines, while the core four-county Sacramento metropolitan area only started to see annual gains drop off in the last couple months. These sub-market dynamics demonstrate the mixed recovery still struggling to take hold throughout the Region. Three of the five largest sectors in the Region continued to add jobs on an annual basis in November 2012 including Trade, Transportation, & Utilities; Professional & Business Services; and Educational & Health Services. Leisure & Hospitality fell back into negative territory in November 2012, joining the Region’s largest sector, Government. In actual numbers, the Region experienced a net gain of 3,900 jobs across the five largest sectors in the past year.

California’s job growth appears to be exhibiting a slight downward pattern with rates falling over the past few months. Between November 2011 and 2012, the state posted 1.9 percent job growth with a gain of nearly 266,000 jobs. Job growth at the national level remained flat with 1.4 percent annual job growth in November 2012 reflecting a 1.9 million-job increase. The SF Bay Area also saw steady job growth at a relatively strong rate of 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending November 2012 (nearly 84,000 jobs were added in this period). Stockton continued to see job growth fall as labor market conditions remain unstable—November 2012 job growth came in at 2.2 percent with an annual gain of 4,100 jobs. The Solano market also experienced a job growth dip, dropping below the national average to 1.2 percent with a 12-month increase of 1,400 jobs.

Annual Job Growth

 

Annual Job Growth

Major Sector Annual Job Gains and Losses

Major Sector Annual Job Gains and Losses

  

Nearly half of Sacramento’s major sectors added jobs in the past 12 months

The Sacramento Region posted job gains in five of the eleven major sectors between November 2011 and 2012. The Financial Activities and Manufacturing sectors joined the large Trade, Transportation, & Utilities; Professional & Business Services; and Educational & Health Services sectors with employment increases in the past year. The Trade, Transportation, & Utilities sector posted the greatest gains with continued momentum in retail trade activities. The Construction and Leisure & Hospitality sectors shifted back to negative job growth in November 2012 expanding the number of sectors with job losses to five. The Government sector posted the most pronounced decline with notable state government losses. Total employment in the Region moved up to 850,000 with a net increase of 4,300 jobs in the past year. This employment level is still similar to where the Region sat in the year 2001.

The state added jobs in seven of the eleven major sectors in the 12 months ending November 2012. The Professional & Business Services sector added the most jobs while the Government sector shed the most jobs across the four sectors in negative territory. Only two major sectors posted job losses in the SF Bay Area in the past 12 months—Financial Activities and Other Services. Like at the statewide level, the SF Bay Area’s Professional & Business Services sector posted the greatest annual gains. The Stockton market also experienced annual declines in only two major sectors—Government and Other Services—while the Educational & Health Services sector added the most jobs between November 2011 and 2012. Solano’s Trade, Transportation, & Utilities topped the list of annual job gains across the major sectors in November 2012 while Government shed the most jobs in the past year.
 

The Center for Strategic Economic Research (CSER) is an economic research and consulting group specializing in applied research and strategy development in the regional economics and economic development fields.

www.strategiceconomicresearch.org
 

CSER is grateful for the support of the Signature Underwriter, UC Davis Health System, and Supporting Underwriters of the Economy Watch, Cushman & Wakefield, Los Rios Community College District, Sacramento Municipal Utility District, Sacramento Works, Weintraub Tobin and Wells Fargo.

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