I'm not going to be attending Monday's Sacramento Regional Transit board meeting. At about 6 p.m. I'm going to be doing the work required prior to having a colonoscopy Tuesday morning. I'm not sure who will have the more distasteful job Monday evening, me or RT's staff.

General Manager Mike Wiley will report to the board that total ridership in April declined for the first time since last November. Ridership in April was down 3.62 percent compared with April of last year. The number of riders was also down when compared with March. The rolling year total -- May 2008 to April 2009 vs. May 2007 to April 2008 -- shows the district still 7.34 percent higher than the comparison 12 months.

Bus ridership in April was down for the third consecutive month, falling 2.29 percent in comparison with April 2008. The rolling year total shows bus ridership just 3.33 percent higher than the previous 12 months. Will these numbers fall of a cliff after September's service cuts?

While light rail ridership showed a slight increase from March to April, the total April ridership was 4.84 percent below the April 2008 total. The rolling year total shows light rail ridership up 11.57 percent.

More troubling, at least as far as budgeting for the coming year, is the fare recovery figures. While the district did 3 percent better in April, the 24.5 percent fare recovery was below the 26 percent goal for the year. The year-to-date rate is just 24.4 percent.

Wiley's April Key Performance Report puts the district operating revenue $4.2 million under budget. The fare revenue in April was $596,000 below budget targets and nearly $2.1 million below targets for the fiscal year. And fares are only part of the problem. The district budgeted $6.1 million in local subsidy funds -- i.e. sales tax revenue -- and received just 2.78 million. For the year, local subsidy funds are running $2.16 million below budget. The Total Fiscal Result: The district was $4.98 million in the hole as of April.

RT says the hole is too deep to fill by simply cutting expenses. As a result, some combination of services cuts and fare increases will be required.

On the agenda Monday will be the question of whether to set in motion a second fare increase this year. RT is proposing raising single fares by 25 cents to $2.50 and daily passes by 50 cents to $6.50. The "discount" fare would rise 15 cents to $1.25. RT is also considering either eliminating the free ride that people 75 years old and older receive or changing the qualification to 85 years old. RT would also either eliminate or increase the price of Paratransit monthly passes. Paratransit has suggested a third alternative: Limiting the total number of rides that the monthly pass would cover.

(See Fare Hike Proposal) (View Full Staff Report)

RT has said it wants to limit service cuts as much as possible, but Monday night will see the first hearing on cuts that would eliminate nearly 10 percent of bus service. Here's the preferred choice, still painful but limited to routes that have alternatives for current riders:

(See Option 4 Service Cuts) (View Staff Report)

These changes would go into effect Sept. 6. But if the 2010 fiscal year budget still looks like it isn't out of the red, RT will begin looking at something from this below list for implementation in January 2010: (View Options)