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Talk about election fatigue.
The last general election was just a few months ago. And though most voters aren't even aware of it yet, our tv's and mailboxes will be full of campaign propaganda for a statewide special election scheduled for May 19th.
Beyond that, however, the 2010 campaigns for governor and legislature are already underway, particularly here in Sacramento, where an all-out battle for the California State Assembly seat being vacated by termed-out Assemblymember Dave Jones has begun to heat up.
First, a bit of background. The District 9 Assembly seat, which encompasses the City of Sacramento and some Sacramento County turf, is safely Democratic. The winner of the June 2010 Democratic primary is a slam dunk to win the November election and, unless there is a political earthquake, hold the seat for the maximum six years allowed in the Assembly. That presumably will give the winner of the Assembly seat in 2010 a leg up to inherit the State Senate seat held by Senate President pro Tem Darryl Steinberg, who presumably will win re-election in two years and go on to hold the seat until his second term runs out.
So needless to say, this Assembly seat is a major prize. And that's why the competition will be intense.
Three main contenders already have emerged.
County Supervisor Roger Dickinson, who hasn't officially declared for the seat, is considered the front-runner. According to a recent poll, he holds a double-digit lead over his opponents. That's due largely to his name recognition; Dickinson has held office at the county level since 1994. He's known as a friendly, dedicated, dorky supervisor who is a liberal's liberal. He ran for the seat both in 1996 and in 2004, but fell short the last time around to then-City Council Member Dave Jones. Jones enjoyed strong labor support, and pummeled Dickenson for showing support for taxpayer funding of a new Kings arena. It wasn't a state issue, but Jones rode it to victory. Dickinson will need to run a more strategic effort this time around, and appeal to the hard-core Democratic voters who will make up the largest chunk of the electorate in this election. Dickinson's campaign will be run by local veteran Democratic consultant Paul Kinney, aided by long-time Sacramento consultant Richie Ross (whose most recent city client was Mayor Heather Fargo).
City Council Member Lauren Hammond also has thrown her hat into the ring. Hammond ran in 2004 as well, finishing third with 18 percent of the vote. She says she learned her lesson in the last go round, and will run a more aggressive campaign. Hammond, who represents Oak Park and Curtis Park on the city council, will be forced to give up her council seat to run. She is likely to be the most moderate of the Democratic candidates in the race, though her record on the city council is definitely progressive. As the only woman and African-American in the race, she will need to rally those constituencies to win. Her campaign will be guided by long-time Sacramento political consultant Jeff Raimundo.
Another city council member, Kevin McCarty, also will be running, though he won't have to give up his council seat. McCarty, who represents Elmhurst, Tahoe Park, and a swath of neighborhoods in southeast Sacramento, won re-election to the council in 2008 without opposition. He first won election in 2004 with a strong door-to-door campaign, and had Ross as his consultant. This time, he's employing the Sacramento-based firm of Acosta/Salazar. McCarty has worked his district well, and will no doubt run a strong ground campaign for Assembly. Positioning himself as the most progressive candidate in the race, McCarty is already seeking to lock up key Democratic constituencies in his run. For example, he recently named the head of the Stonewall Democratic Club to the city's charter commission -- even though he didn't even reside in his district. McCarty is trying to mold himself in the image of Jones, Steinberg and previous progressive city council members who made the move up to the legislature from city hall. He has the most in the bank of any of the candidates. And he'll need it: a recent poll showed his name ID far below the other two candidates in the race.
Others are said to be considering a run for the seat as well. More moderate interests continue to search for a candidate they can back, and several Sacramento business leaders apparently are testing the waters. Whether they take the plunge against this trio of long-time politicians remains to be seen.
Also a factor: will Mayor Kevin Johnson endorse any of the candidates and, if so, will his coalition that swamped the party machine last year hold up and show up in an off-year primary?
It's too early to know the answer to that question, and many others.
However, In any case, this election will likely be the marque local battle in 2010. Keep your eyes on future developments, and a campaign that is likely to get rough as it heads down the stretch.
Why do I get the sense that John Galt wouldn't support any candidate to the left of Strom Thurmond?
William, first off I do not support ANY Republicans in California...with the exception of maybe Tom McClintock...If you read my post, you would see that I support Kaplan and Moore...both of which are Democrats..and I believe they are both fiscally responsible. That being said...I also know a true conservative would never win in the D1council district, so I will support a candidate who i believe has personal integrity and who wont be owned by big developers. Kaplan and Moore are also not typical Democrats, they come off as independent thinkers with integrity...
I am also an environmentalist who sits on the board of a major well known environmental organization, so you can stop trying to label me William, I am a fierce independent with critical thinking skills, unlike you and 99% of your ultra liberal comrades.
I actually think that there is a healthy dose of elitism behind dismissing 99% of any group.
Patrick Kennedy is one of those perennial candidates that always runs for office, but never seems to get elected. I guess he was finally able to find a spot on the School Board, but he has never done anything of note. He should be happy with his School Board seat.
The other name I’ve heard is Jay Schenirer. He is an old school board member and former president that got tossed out of office in 2004. He’s notoriously anti-union and was very unpopular when he last ran for office. I think his time has past.
Down in the south part of the city, in D-7, Robbie Waters seems poised to face at least 1 challenger this cycle. According to the election portal on the City of Sacramento's (http://www.netfile.com/agency/sac/) website, Ryan Chin has submitted paperwork to the city as a candidate. Ryan is a board member of the Sacramento CAPITAL Foundation, did his undergrad at UC Berkeley and received an MBA from UC Davis. He is listed as an API leader on Major Johnson's campaign website, which poses an interesting political question: Will the Mayor endorse and support his old battle ax Waters, or will he be faced with the choice of siding with Ryan Chin and the API constituency that so dramatically propelled him to victory ( most might not know that the API vote was the largest swing demographic in the City last November.)
I've never heard of him, but he does have nice facial hair.
Do you run the Sacramento Insider blog?
http://www.thesacramentoinsider.com/